The Return of al-Sadr
After more than 14 weeks in hiding in Iran, Moqtada al-Sadr returned to Iraq last week. The question before Iraq now is, "Has he returned from Iran stronger than he was before he left?" By Omar Fadhil, PJM Baghdad editor
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Given the combination of SIIC leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim’s [wiki] absence from the Shia political scene, the training Sadr received in Iran, and the timing Tehran chose for his return, Moqtada al-Sadr has obviously returned strong. Strong enough to summon seven Iraqi governors to meet him and listen to his instructions about how they should run their respective provinces in central and southern Iraq at the same time his militiamen were fighting the police forces of at least one of those provinces.
In the speech Sadr made at that meeting he called for the peaceful coexistence and cooperation of the police and army on one side, and the Mahdi Army on the other.
Setting aside the fact that endorsing an armed outlaw militia is a brazen violation of the constitution and criminal law (militias that existed prior to OIF are something of a different case, though they too remain constitutionally unacceptable), the meeting sets a dangerous precedent. Sadr is presenting himself as a head of state, leading senior state officials to his meeting like sheep, and challenging the power of the legitimate leaders of the country.
Maliki reacted quickly and gathered the governors around his table in an attempt to minimize Sadr’s influence, and ordered the governors to cleanse their security forces of any elements whose loyalties lie outside of the Iraqi government. It remains unclear which man made a bigger impact. And it remains painfully disappointing that no one in the government did anything to condemn Sadr’s move, or publicly denounce his undermining of the structure of the state.
It’s become clear now that Iraq will not become a successful state when such violations of the law can happen in the open and remain unchecked. Confronting Sadr’s militia with limited operations is not enough-it’s time to deal with him seriously.
The declared objective of the new strategies emanating from Washington and Baghdad is to enforce the rule of law and bring outlaws to justice. Our government persists in saying that no one, including members of that government, is above the law. But this promise has not been translated into action thus far. It makes sense if the reason for the delay in taking serious action to put an end to Sadr’s flouting of the law was a lack of troops, but I’d also expect it to mean that this action should coming soon.
Four years of hesitation have only served to make Sadr stronger and the situation worse, but we have nothing to fear. They can’t make more trouble than they already have. While Al-Qaeda poses a serious security challenge in some provinces, Sadr threatens the future of the whole country. He can paralyze or disrupt the proper functioning of whole ministries and provinces.
The nature of the Mahdi Army means that without political guidance and a figurehead to rally around they would be reduced to making trouble in the streets like any other gang. But they wouldn’t be able to control the institutions of state.
In light of the talk among our British friends of leaving Iraq in 12 months, the south will be in great danger, and a tough decision must be made before that time comes. By the time Sadr can manipulate the civil authority, or Iraqi officers, the number of soldiers we can train and equip won’t make a difference.
Sadr is not simply an outlaw; he represents Iran’s project in Iraq just like Hamas and Nasrallah represent it in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon. These are the three arms of Iran in the Middle East that have worked consistently to ruin every emerging democratic project. And these arms must be cut off sooner rather than later.
Omar Fadhil is Baghdad editor for Pajamas Media; his own blog is Iraq The Model.
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21 Comments
Bill Bradley:It’s not going to happen.
Jun 4, 2007 - 5:16 pm Anthony Ragan:The best time to take care of Mookie was three years ago, when first revolted. Snipers had him in their sights; the order should have been given. I agree that it’s well-past time for the Mahdi Army to be taken out, and the best way is to get al-Sadr and his cronies. Is the arrest warrant against him still in force?
Jun 4, 2007 - 6:00 pm Demosophist:The fact that Sadr “skedaddled” at the point when the Americans were just getting around to dealing with him suggests that his actual status is not as high as one might think. But the primary issue has to be misdirection, or the ability of the coalition to make it appear that Scenario A is developing while the reality is Scenario B. The presumption is that Sadr is strong, or at least stronger, by virtue of his sojourn to Persia. It may be useful to have the Iranians believe that, and it also might be useful to have Sadr convinced of that. The more they meander across the landscape the more likely it is that they’ll fall into a pit. It’s good when your enemy is overconfident.
Jun 4, 2007 - 6:33 pm DoktorNo:Impose gas embargo on Iran!
Now!
Jun 5, 2007 - 3:51 am Stan:It is late in the day, but there is still time for an Iraqi patriot to assassinate Sadr. It must be done, and in a very Iraqi way, to demonstrate to the people he and his followers are an enemy of a free Iraq.
Jun 5, 2007 - 4:23 am tedders:JDAM that ball of lard. No more anti American rhetoric can come from a greasy spot on the sidewalk.
Jun 5, 2007 - 6:23 am Dan:Hey, as long as Mookie is staying within the law, then don’t touch him. There’s nothing wrong with him meeting with elected leaders and telling them how he thinks they should run their respective provinces. Hell, Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton do it all the time. BUT if it ever becomes evident … and by that I mean “evident” in the sense of being able to be proven in a court of law …. that Mookie is using his militia to illegally enforce his edicts, or if he openly agitates for violence, then come down on him like a load of bricks. I agree with Anthony above when he says that Sadr should have been taken out three years ago. It was a monumental mistake (one of many that the White House and the Pentagon have made) not to have done so. But doing so now would probably cause more harm than good. My bet is that his Iranian masters have told him to bide his time and that the U.S. will be gone within another year to 18 months. “Don’t give the crusaders an excuse to kill you.”
Jun 5, 2007 - 6:40 am Brian H:Dan;
Jun 5, 2007 - 7:55 am patrick neid:I am sorely tempted to unkindly recommend remedial reading, but will settle for quoting:
“endorsing an armed outlaw militia is a brazen violation of the constitution and criminal law”.
Mookie is the acknowledged and self-admitted head and organizer and director of the Madhi Army. He has outstanding murder charges. He routinely agitates for attacks on the MNF and it’s “puppet government”. What, specifically, would you expect that he could do further to run afoul of the law? Publicly gut Malaki? Enuf is enuf.
whenever this little fat f’k with the bad teeth shows up the same questions ruminate in my head.
are we in a war against terrorism? are we in a war against the states that sponsor it?
Jun 5, 2007 - 8:01 am Jack:if, as the president has stated we are, then why are the terror leaders of iran, syria, sudan, hamas, hezzbollah and al sadr to name a few still alive? correct me if i’m wrong—these are the terrorists and these are the states. these are the terror generals.
apparently john edwards is right–is that even possible?–that we are not in a war on terror. it must be a bumper sticker affair akin to those other famous bumper crusades. you know, “free tibet” and “save darfur”.
by my reasoning these folks should all be dead now, not sipping lattes and on shopping excursions while being feted by the UN. the fact that they are not speaks volumes.
In the long run Sadr represents as big or bigger threat than Al Qaeda in Iraq. He is fair game right now, as far as I can see. There is a war going on and he is the on-the-ground ally of our number one State enemy–Iran. Don’t wait for his timetable. Take him out as soon as we can. His presence alone stymies the process of the Maliki government centralizing its power and legitimizes the existence of rogue armies… all the while our inaction continues to encourage Iran’s brazenness.
Jack
Jun 5, 2007 - 10:16 am Smokey:The World’s Ruined
When Mookie hightailed it to Iran, his Mahdi army immediately began splintering into smaller factions. That was a good thing — infighting weakens the enemy, and a splinter group is easier to destroy.
Given that logic, what is keeping U.S. forces from killing al-Sadr??
Jun 5, 2007 - 11:10 am diana:a lot of paradigms must change. For example:
Jun 5, 2007 - 11:31 am BenM:1) I would get rid of al-Sadr
2) I would make peace happen between Israel and Lebanon. Such powerful financial houses!
3) I would get rid of Baby Assad and let the M. Brotherhood take over if the Syrian’s so choose.
That would change drastically the ME.
Is there a rationale beyond stupidity why Mook hasn’t been killed yet?
What fear is there that lets our leaders rationalize letting him live?
Is it the logic that he is needed to prop-up a democratic facade of Shia majority rule under Maliki?
Do the higher-ups prefer him to alternative power-hungry clerics?
Why hasn’t Sistani encouraged his followers to contest the Sadr movement more aggressively?
So many pertinent questions. So few substantive answers…
Jun 5, 2007 - 12:24 pm Marzouq:Long Live Ayatollah Sistani and the Najaf School. Down with the gangster punk Puketada al Sadr. Puketada’s father must be spinning in his grave.
JDAM not a good solution. He must be tried and hung for the murder of Abdul Majid al Khoei. I pray the ignorant Shia members of Aish Mechdi learn and wise up soon and dump their punk “leader”. Puketada reminds me of the gangster crack merchants in the slums of USA.
Would you suggest JDAM on them? Not practical. Funny thing, I recall the fraud Kerry talking about the “war on terror” being a police problem.
It is ironic that the best way to perform the Surge is with police methods. Al Queda in Iraq, the Mahdi “Army” are criminal gangs and operate as such.
Salaam eleikum
Jun 5, 2007 - 12:51 pm Robert Blue:From CNN - it’s a start, Stan
Head of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s movement in Babil province killed
South of Baghdad in Babil province, gunmen killed the head of the local office of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s political movement.
According to Hilla police, Abdul Raheem Mohammed Nayef was gunned down Tuesday morning in Jbela, about 40 miles (65 kilometers) south of Baghdad.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/06/05/iraq.main/index.html
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Stan :
It is late in the day, but there is still time for an Iraqi patriot to assassinate Sadr. It must be done, and in a very Iraqi way, to demonstrate to the people he and his followers are an enemy of a free Iraq.
Jun 5, 2007 04:23 AM
Jun 5, 2007 - 2:25 pm diana:sorry, buy IMHO Sadr+Maliki+Sistani are all one. That’s why Sadr has not been sent into that gentle good night……..
Jun 5, 2007 - 4:00 pm Robert Blue:diana :
sorry, but IMHO Sadr+Maliki+Sistani are all one. That’s why Sadr has not been sent into that gentle good night……..
Jun 5, 2007 04:00 PM
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Jun 5, 2007 - 9:37 pm waltc:If that’s true, then it’s all for naught. But it’s not true at least not at this point in time. Sistani is not the same as Sadr, thank God / Allah - he actually seems to be the “quietist” outside the government scope and is an Iraqi Ayatollah counterweight now to the Iranian Supreme Council mullahs. Maliki started off real bad trying to accomodate the Sadrists (who formed originally for Mookie’s dad, a real martyr to Saddam’s tyranny) But Sadrists as a group of 20 plus legislators have been more of a pain in Parliament and government and as you can see daily, the splintered militia / gangsters are being hit daily by US, Iraqi army and now in the streets.
But Sadrists as a group of 20 plus legislators have been more of a pain in Parliament and government
And if we shoot mookie, these legislators will have less power to impede the legislative efforts at compromise.
Jun 6, 2007 - 9:56 am Doug:The main reason we haven’t taken out Sadr is because we haven’t received the green light from Maliki (or his predecessor). And, the reason we haven’t received the green light from Mailiki is because he knows that if he authorizes the assassination or the capture and trial of Al Sadr, he will lose a huge chunk of his base. He’s dealing with Sadr as a nuisance child that needs to be kept in check until he is irrelevant. It’s a gamble. Just like Hezbollah, just like Hamas, just like all of Iran’s proxies, Al Sadr has engaged in a game of brinkmanship. The objective for Iran is to undermine and destabilize without going too far. They play the same game with their nuclear development. And, unfortunately, the more diplomatic elements of world politics fall for it because they are hamstrung by policy and proceedure.
There is another risk in that if Sadr is assassinated or brought to trial, this will further push the foot soldiers of the Mahdi Army in the direction ot terrorism rather than the direction of legitimate participation in the new Democracy. I think that is a valid concern. But, sometimes you have to stir up the hornets before you can finally exterminate the nest and get rid of the problem. My best guess is that Al Sadr will end up being Iraq’s problem, just like Hezbollah has been Lebanon’s problem. Sadr is becomming the Iraqi equivelant of Lebanon’s Nazrallah. All of this is Iran’s very active policy of undermining any stabilizing Democratic developments in their neighborhood.
Jun 6, 2007 - 1:29 pm Honza P:We were willing to suspend our planned asault on Fallujah in order to publicly humble him before. We can switch tracks agin, if need be. If he is willing to coexist until we get other priorities in order, and that means not slaughtering Sunni Arabs or planting IEDs, I see no reason not to leave him for another day, at least so long as we can still reorient rapidly.
Jun 7, 2007 - 8:19 am Herschel Smith:Omar once again demonstrates why he and Mohammed of Iraq the Model are the first and last authors to be read to truly understand Iraq today. I follow up this article with one of my own where I pointed out the same things, and discuss the coming irrelevance of the Maliki administration if Sadr is not dealt with. Keep up the good work Omar.
http://www.captainsjournal.com/2007/06/07/iraqi-government-on-the-verge-of-powerlessness/
Jun 7, 2007 - 9:05 pm