March 06, 2003

POLLS ARE ALWAYS SUSPECT, but this one reports a "huge shift" in British sentiment in favor of war.

If it's true, then it's terrible news for Saddam. And, I suspect, just as bad for Chirac.

UPDATE: Well, here's the meat of it from the pollsters' site:

Three quarters (75%) of people in Britain would now be prepared to support British troops joining any American-led military action against Iraq. However, this support is conditional both on UN inspectors finding proof that Iraq is trying to hide weapons of mass destruction, and on the UN Security Council voting in favour of military action.

In the absence of these two conditions, only a quarter (24%) would support British involvement, and opposition rises from 18% to 67%. But opposition falls to two in five (41%) if the inspectors do find evidence that Iraq is hiding weapons of mass destruction - even if the UN still does not vote in favour of action.

Not as dramatic as The Sun makes it sound (no!), but "there has been almost a 10% swing in his favour since mid-January." So if delays in the war were designed to let Blair shore up his position, well, I guess they've worked.

ANOTHER UPDATE: I guess they have -- Blair now says the UK will go ahead even in the face of a Security Council veto.

YET ANOTHER UPDATE: I don't know how I missed it, but here's a piece by Iain Murray from NRO on the topic.