UPDATE: Dan Friedman emails from the Upper West Side in Manhattan:
Even here on the UWS you find people who are wavering or are going with McCain. Not the therapists or the ones who read The Nation, and hardly a majority, but plenty of level-headed professionals and so forth. Now extrapolate that phenomenon to the white ethnic (and Oriental) 'hoods in the outer boroughs, then further out to the construction worker, cop, and fireman types on Long Island, Rockland County, etc. Then look at the historical voting patterns of upstate. In play? Closer than anyone thinks, that's for sure.
This may account for the smell of fear emanating from the Democrats.