September 28, 2008

YESTERDAY'S POST on the ongoing phenomenon of watch markdowns led some readers to wonder if it's driven by a change in behavior. Reader Chris Arfaa writes:

I suspect the frequency of watch sales is a result of a decline in watch wearing. I rarely use a watch, relying on the clock on my mobile phone. While I seem to be an exception in my age group (45), younger generations – those who grew up with mobile phones – seem not to wear watches. Wrist watches qua wrist watches may go the way of day planners and non-wireless PDAs (other items of personal technology whose functions are now built into the mobile phone).

And another reader emails: "I asked my son about a possible watch as a gift for his girlfriend. Both are late teens while I'm from the age of dinosaurs. He said no one wears them anymore because they just rely on their cellphones. Perhaps that might be one reason for the big watch sale?"

Yeah, my daughter is in the same boat. I try not to carry my cellphone with me all the time -- not because I'm worried about infertility (at this point, I'm not sure if that's a bug, or a feature), but because I don't like the interruptions that come with carrying a cellphone that's turned on. But when you're texting your friends 24/7, the attitude's different. Of course, once cellphones are small enough to go on your wrist, we may come full circle . . . .

ANOTHER UPDATE: Reader John Opie sends a long email saying that these cheap watches aren't so good. Click "read more" to read it.

Opie writes:

Long-time reader. You rock. :-) Never had a reason to comment until now.

I moderate the vintage and pocket watch forum over at WatchUSeek (WUS), one of the largest forums for watches on the Internet (over 30 000 registered members, over 1 mn posts, etc. etc.). We're here:

http://forums.watchuseek.com/index.php

I really, really, really hate to break it to you: the watch you bought is typical of watches made to fleece the unwitting buyer. These kinds of markdowns are typical for fly-by-night manufacturers, who post a fairly absurd list price with this wonderful discount to make you think you're getting a great bargain. They also abound on eBay. While Invicta has been around a tad longer than most (it resurrected a defunct brand name in the 1990s), it remains a very low-quality manufacturer. Please don't think this is coming from a watch snob: the vast majority of the watches I own (ca 80) were less than $150, and as an economist, I am a great friend of bang-for-the-buck, getting the maximum return on my watch money. I do own a $1000 watch, but that's another story entirely...

You're not really getting what you pay for. What you do get is a significantly overprice mechanical fashion watch that your watchmaker, when you take it in to have it worked on because it starts to behave erratically, will tell you isn't worth repairing.

Period. Invictas are low-end watches that usually do not survive past the warranty period. There are exceptions to the rule, but they are literally the exceptions.

We've covered this I don't know how many times on WatchUSeek. Come on over and check out our Affordables Forum: http://forums.watchuseek.com/forumdisplay.php?f=71

If you search on WUS for Invicta, you'll find more about the company: what we call an Eur Asian company that manages to pass itself off as European whilst really making their watches in Asia.

You can do much, much better for the money: a good. solid Seiko diver isn't much more, and will give you vastly more value for your money. Anything less than ca $150 is from China (regardless of where they claim to be made) or is a mechanical Swatch. A right and proper Swiss mechanical watch - defined as a watch that is designed to last longer than the warranty period - can't be sold for less than around $500 right now (exchange rate effects for Swiss movements) and the better Chinese watches - Sea Gulls, largely - are around $250 for chronographs made with the ST19 movement, which is the Chinese version of a 1950 vintage Swiss movement that is actually rather nice. There's a lot of marketing involved for a lot of watch brands out there, trying to grab some of the lucrative market, and there are a LOT of really cheap and fairly badly made Chinese watches out there that fuel the entire "replica" industry, the kind that you find on Canal Street in New York for $75 that are illegal copies of watches selling for a lot more. TAANSTAFL, right?

Sorry to rain on your parade. Come on over to WUS and we'll be happy to provide you and your readers with all sorts of watch advice. Just watches: no politics, sex, spam or anything inappropriate for work or family. :-)

And the pricing is definitely not the result of young folks preferring to use their cell phones. Their demographic is too small (and too poor) to make an impact on mechanical watch sales.

Well, dang. I already bought one. It looks quite nice; we'll see how it holds up.